(Gold Silver Worlds) In a recent presentation, Dundee’s Martin Murenbeeld explained the bullish and bearish forces at work in the gold market with some 50 charts. The slideshow is available below.
Looking back to 2013, it appeared that investors went heavily into equities which resulted in a massive negative correlation between stocks and gold. On the other hand, Chinese net imports from Hong Kong set record volumes.
More importantly, however, Murenbeeld looks into the gold price expectations for 2014 and 2015.
Bearish factors for 2014 and 2015
Basically, in sum, Murenbeeld sees the following bearish factors for gold’s price in the coming 18 months:
- The Fed must inevitably tighten policy
- The Fed is currently “tapering”
- QE will end late 2014
- And the Fed will raise rates in 2015
- US dollar will remain firm in 2014-15!?
- The world economy is sluggish
- Gold typically weakens during recessions
- Inflation pressures remain subdued
- There is often a need for “liquidity”
- Equity markets will continue to draw investment interest away from gold
- Investors still have gold to sell – and “technicals” bearish
This is only the summary of this view. Readers are recommended to study the accompanying charts which are available in the presentation below.
Bullish factors for 2014 and 2015
As for the bullish forces at play, this is what Murenbeeld expects in the coming 18 months:
- ETF “supply” down dramatically in 2014-15
- Asian physical demand will continue to expand
- Central banks will continue to buy gold
- Global debt crisis will require ongoing monetary reflation
- Global imbalances will remain unresolved until the dollar declines significantly
- The commodity cycle will run many more years
- Geopolitical crises will multiply
- Gold price not “expensive” by normal measures
Gold price scenarios for 2014 and 2015
On the last slide, Dundee provides price targets, as evidenced in the following table:
Clearly, the targets are rather defensive but for sure not bearish.