Gold Price: Are We At The Preface of A Significant Rally?

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In our article on September 23 we postulated that gold seemed to be setting up for a triple bottom, but it was too soon to tell for sure. As of this week gold has reached the level of support drawn from the two previous bottoms, and it has bounced off that support. It is not yet a robust bounce, but it is at least a first small sign that a long-term bottom may be forming.

In the chart below we can see the three bottoms that have formed at about the 1180 level. The recent bottom is not very prominent, but it hints at the possibility of a continued rally, and shows a window of opportunity beginning to open for gold bulls. The negative part of this picture is that the support line is part of a consolidation that is called a continuation pattern, which implies that it is just a pause before the preceding decline continues.

gold price daily 2007 October 2014 price

The indicator at the bottom of the chart shows that sentiment for gold is still negative. Central Gold Trust (GTU) is a closed-end fund that owns gold, and, because it is closed-end, its shares which trade like a stock, can trade at a discount or premium to the actual value of the assets the fund owns. Because GTU is selling at a heavy discount to net asset value, we know that traders are not at all anxious to own gold. What we want to see is for GTU shares to start selling at a premium, because that will help confirm that any rally has market sentiment on its side and is likely to persist.

Essential to the continued strength of gold is the continued weakness of the dollar. The next chart shows that the dollar, which experienced an unusually sharp advance, has begun to break down.

dollar daily 2013 October 2014 price

 

However, the weekly chart shows that this weakness may only be a technical pullback after a long-term breakout.

dollar price weekly 2008 October 2014 price

Conclusion: Thanks to a sharp pullback by the dollar gold has managed to bounce off an important support line, and offers the possibility that another rally is beginning, a rally that could end the long decline from all-time highs. It is a time for increased attention for those who want to catch the next gold rally.

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